A look at the Greek Math...

• The Greek January – September budget deficit was EUR 19.16bn versus 16.65bn same period last year (+15%). This only includes the central government.
• The initial deficit target for 2011 was EUR 17bn. We blew past that after only 8 months. The revised target (July) is now 22bn (9.5% of GDP).
• Latest estimate from the Greek government: 8.5% deficit (19.5bn) for 2011 (instead of 7.6% or 17bn).
• While 2011 revenues are trending below 2010, expenses are trending higher.
• Despite all the austerity measures, Greece is still spending 150% of its revenues.
• Of course, the Ministry of Finance sees a reduction of the deficit to a miniscule 2.6% of GDP by 2014 as revenues rise and expenses come down.
• How is that possible? Somehow, after spending four consecutive years in recession (2009-2012), the economy will rise like a phoenix and grow by 5.8% in 2014.